PRN 2023: Forecast of DUN Seats for Negeri Sembilan

We left my apartment in KL early in the morning with my assistant in the driver’s seat of a rented PERODUA BEZZA. It was not easy to negotiate the early morning traffic in KL to Seremban, so I volunteered to be his navigator, having only polished up my skill with GAZE apps the previous day.

We arrived at Seremban just before noon after a brief stop over at an R&R along the Highway. This was indeed my second experience going to the ground during political campaign period in Peninsular Malaysia, after my first experience in Selangor the previous day. We went straight to DUN Sikamat where the Menteri Besar, popularly known in Seremban as Tok Min, was standing as a PH candidate.

He has been Menteri Besar since 2018, and having nothing spectacular to show both in terms of academic qualification and achievements during his term. Nevertheless, he is still a popular Menteri Besar, always keeping in touch with his people. A gerai owner that we visited told me the people in the Kawasan liked him as this was his Kampung where he lived. However, my assistant met with another group critical of the MB and felt that the MB had not

done enough for the people.

Please also read: PRN 2023: Ramalan di Enam Buah Negeri

A pensioner that I met for Maghrib prayer in a large mosque nearby, however, was vocal and differed in his views about Negeri Sembilan politics. He was saying that enough was enough for PH to run the state. It is high time to move on and let the Malay political party to take over. He added that his generation was lucky living under Malay led governments for decades. The current unstable politics, with government controlled by non Malay power, is leading our next generation into an unknown future. He, nevertheless, admitted that his are not normal views there, and many Malays in the area were not happy with him.

The mosque at Seremban where we met a few respondents

Earlier in the afternoon, we visited a gerai makan named Gerai Cendol Songkok Tinggi located in an adjecent kawasan DUN Ampangan, where Tengku Zamrah stands under PH. There were some people there taking a rest and enjoy Cendol delicacy, and I must admit this may be the best Cendol stall I ever visited, offering cendol in many delicious variants.

My assistant as seen busily enganging with four ladies at Gerai Cendol Songkok Tinggi at Kawasan DUN Ampangan -the best gerai cendol I have ever visited in the country

My assistant was really adept at engaging respondents who were having their meal while immersed in discussions among themselves. He approached four ladies sitting at a square and raised table close to ours, and soon was himself joining their discussion. As it turned out, they were from Selangor and Wilayah Persekutuan, but gave us their views that PH/BN would win in Negeri Sembilan, but Selangor was 50/50 for the two major parties.

The situation in Negeri Sembilan differs from that in Selangor. Whereas in Selangor there are ex UMNO or PH heavyweights standing as candidates or campaign for PN, in Negeri Sembilan apart from Khairy Jamaluddin, influential UMNO leaders like Mohammad Hassan(Tok Mat) and others stay put in UMNO. For this reason UMNO structure is still in tact and any upheaval of Malay politics is not likely there.

I also run an FB page where I can gauge online response on the media. More than 500 comments have been received to date and these indicate that PH/BN is popular in Negeri Sembilan.

My own analysis of the PRU 15 results also indicated that BN was still popular in Negeri Sembilan and won all the Malay seats it contested, with a record 65.7% Malay voter support.

Negeri Sembilan has a total of 36 DUN seats of which PH contest in 19 seats, BN 17 seats and PN 36 Seats, meaning that there are straight fights between PH/BN and PN in all seats, except for few seats where independent or small party candidates are also present.

As of todate, PH/BN political group appear well entrenched in their seats, so it would be difficult for Perikatan Nasional to win many seats here, unless the green wave much anticipated by certain quarters really materialise in the next few days. Otherwise PN could only win in seats relying on personal strength of some of their candidates.



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