The Sarawak 12th State Election was supposed to be held in August/September this year, but it was deferred owing to the COVID-19 Emergency declaration over Sarawak during that period. However, since the pandemic situation had improved, the Emergency was lifted to enable holding of the Election -casting and counting of votes will be done tomorrow.

In doing this forecast, I made use of publicly available data on each constituency as well as its past voting pattern. The current voting pattern is arrived at after looking at the general sentiments of each major racial group, namely Dayak, Chinese and Malay/Muslim voters.

Barisan Nasional obtained 72 seats, DAP 7 and PKR 3 in the 82 seat DUN during the last election. A post voting data analysis revealed that that Barisan Nasional obtained 89% of the Malay votes, 66.2% of the Dayak, and 34.2% of the Chinese votes. The Government party was ridng over the popularity of the then Chief Minister, Tan Sri Adenan Satem.

In the currrent Election GPS ( previously the BN Sarawak) is also riding on the current Chief Minister Datuk Patinggi Abang Johari’s populaity. He has successfully imposed Petroleum Sales Tax and this added subtantial revenue for the State coffers. The passing of the Constitutional Bill MA 63 a few days ago added to his feather, and all these confirm beyond question his position as the most effective Borneo leader ever, in undertaking delicate negotiations with the Federal Government. He lives up to the expectation of Sarawakian with the GPS Slogan ‘SARAWAK FIRST’

In view of the above substantial achievements, it is fair to expect GPS to do very well in this Election, added further by the current disarray in the opposition camp. However, I prefer to be more conservative in my forecast with an estimate of support by 85% from Malay voters, 64% from Dayak voters and 35% from Chinese voters. Based on the above assumption, with slight adjustments for special situations in a few constituencies, my forecast is given below

Party No. of Seats (GPS Max Scenario) No. of Seats (GPS Min Scenario)
GPS 73 68
DAP 6 7
PKR 1 3
PSB 2 4
Sarawak State Election 2021 Forecast

This Election sees the emergence of a new contender Parti Sarawak Bersatu founded by Datuk Wong Soon Koh, a former Finance Minister in the Sarawak Government. The impact of this new party is being watched closely by Sarawakians as it is well funded and initially managed to get four incumbents in its fold. The euphoria within the camp has subsided somewhat when a candidate from a nearby constituency, a close ally, decided to withdraw in support of GPS. For full article on this matter, please click here.

Good day everybody, let’s wait for the results tomorrow. In the meantime stay safe, maintain physical distancing, but don’t forget to vote.




Note: This article was originally published in DAH IKHWAN BLOG

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